Previous Papers
"Does the Current Account Still Matter?"
Richard T. Ely Lecture, January 6, 2012
"Financial Flows, Financial Crises, and Global Imbalances" Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012
"Gross Financial Flows, Global Imbalances, and Crises"
L. K. Jha Memorial Lecture, Reserve Bank of India, December 13, 2011
"Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First"
with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012
"Expanding Gross Asset Positions and the International Monetary System"
Panel presentation at Jackson Hole Symposium, August 2010
"Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes"
with Kenneth Rogoff, August 2010
"Remembering Alan Stockman"
July 2010
"The Immoderate World Economy"
Keynote Speech, 3rd Annual JIMF-SCCIE Conference, May 2009
"Lenders of Last Resort in a Globalized World"
November 2009
"Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008"
with Jay C. Shambaugh and Alan M. Taylor, Dec 2008
"Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves"
with Jay C. Shambaugh and Alan M. Taylor, June 2009
"International Risk Sharing and the Costs of Trade"
the Ohlin lectures, May 2007
"The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads"
July 2006; Revised December 2007
"The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited"
with Kenneth Rogoff, October 2004; Revised November 2005
"America's Deficit, the World's Problem"
Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2005
"Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments"
with Kenneth Rogoff, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2005
"Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: The Case for Exchange-Rate Flexibility Restored"
with Margarida Duarte, Revised February 2007
"External Adjustment"
Review of World Economics, 2004
"Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and the Exchange Rates of Emerging Economies"
Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2004
"Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period"
with Jay Shambaugh and Alan M. Taylor, April 2004
"Monetary and Fiscal Remedies for Deflation"
with Alan J. Auerbach, January 2004
"The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap"
with Alan J. Auerbach, American Economic Review, 2005
"The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility"
with Jay C. Shambaugh and Alan M. Taylor, Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005
"Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31"
with Alan M. Taylor, Economic Journal, 2003
"Globalization and Capital Markets" with Alan M. Taylor, in Globalization in Historical Perspective, ed. Michael D. Bordo, Alan M. Taylor, and Jeffrey G, Williamson, University of Chicago Press, 2003
"Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics"
Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, June 2002
"Risk and Exchange Rates"
with Kenneth Rogoff, in Contemporary Economic Policy: Essays in Honor of Assaf Razin, ed. Elhanan Helpman and Effraim Sadka, Cambridge University Press, 2002.
"Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data"
with Matthew T. Jones, in Money, Capital, and Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert A. Mundell, ed. Guillermo Calvo, Rudiger Dornbusch, and Maurice Obstfeld, MIT Press, 2001.
"Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules"
with Kenneth Rogoff, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002
"International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model"
IMF Staff Papers, 2001
"Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment"
with Kenneth Rogoff, 2000
"The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?"
with Kenneth Rogoff, 2000
"New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models"
with Kenneth Rogoff, 2000
"Foreign Resource Inflows, Saving, and Growth" in The Economics of Saving and Growth, ed. K. Schmidt Hebbel and Luis Servén, Cambridge University Press, 1999
"The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1998
"The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run" with Alan M. Taylor, in The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, ed. Michael D. Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene N. White, University of Chicago Press, 1998.
"Regional Nonadjustment and Fiscal Policy: Lessons for EMU" with Giovanni Peri, Economic Policy, 1998
"Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses" Journal of International Economics, 1997
"Dynamic Seigniorage Theory: An Exploration" Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1997
"Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features" European Economic Review, 1996
"Comment on ‘Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling’ by Paul Krugman" NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1996
"Europe’s Gamble" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997
"International Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995
"Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux" with Kenneth Rogoff, Journal of Political Economy, 1995
"The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates" with Kenneth Rogoff, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995
"Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?" in Capital Mobility: The Impact on Consumption, Investment and Growth. ed. Leonardo Leiderman and Assaf Razin, Cambridge University Press, 1994.
"The Logic of Currency Crises" Cahiers Économiques et Monétaires, 1994
"Risk Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth” American Economic Review, 1994
"Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices" with Kenneth A. Froot, American Economic Review, 1991
"Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions" with Kenneth A. Froot, Econometrica, 1991
"Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?" with Harold L. Cole, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1991
"Intertemporal Dependence, Impatience, and Dynamics" Journal of Monetary Economics, 1990
"Fiscal Deficits and Relative Prices in a Growing World Economy" Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989
"How Integrated are World Capital Markets: Some New Tests" in Debt, Stabilization and Development: Essays in Memory of Carlos Díaz Alejandro, ed Guillermo Calvo, Ronald Findlay, Pentti Kouri and Jorge Braga de Macedo, Blackwell, 1989
"Competitiveness, Realignment, and Speculation: The Role of Financial Markets" in The European Monetary System, ed. Francesco Giavazzi, Stefano Micossi, and Marcus Miller, Cambridge University Press, 1988.
"Optimal Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy with Finite Lifetimes" with Guillermo A. Calvo, Econometrica, 1988
"Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises" American Economic Review, 1986
"Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement" Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1986
"Speculative Attack and the External Constraint in a Maximizing Model of the Balance of Payments" Canadian Journal of Economics, 1986
"Exchange-Rate Dynamics" with Alan C. Stockman, in Handbook of International Economics, vol. 2, ed. Ronald W. Jones and Peter B. Kenen, Elsevier, 1985
"Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1985
"International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence" with Robert E. Cumby, in Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, ed. John F. O. Bilson and Richard C. Marston, University of Chicago Press, 1984.
"Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations" with Robert E. Cumby and John Huizinga, Journal of Econometrics, 1983
"Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?" with Kenneth Rogoff, Journal of Political Economy, 1983
"Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1982